Thursday, June 19, 2008

Army Guard Recruiters Being Reigned In

The Army Times is reporting that the Army National Guard (ARNG) has missed its monthly recruiting goal for the first time since 2005. The misstep, however, is not due to any failure on the part of Army Guard or its 359,288 members. It is the result of an Army directive ordering the ARNG to slow its recruiting so it does not exceed manpower levels authorized by law. Though the Army had no other choice than to pull in the ARNG’s reigns, it is folly not to take full advantage of the Army Guard’s superior recruiting capabilities. Congress and the administration should acknowledge that recruits are supporting the Army Guard in larger numbers than the active Army and act accordingly to increase the size of the ARNG.

The current success of Army Guard recruiting began with the implementation of the “recruiting assistant” program in late 2005. The program targets potential Soldiers, who might not listen to a traditional recruiter (a stranger) but look up to the heroes of their own communities returning from overseas: their co-workers, former and current teachers, firemen, and even parents. The program trains “assistant recruiters” from among Guard forces who are encouraged to talk to potential recruits. If an “assistant recruiter” gets a young person to go to boot camp, the program pays the Guard member $2,000. The program has been a major factor in the recruitment of 44,466 new members by the ARNG so far this fiscal year compared to 42,280 recruits by the Active Army during the same period.

Congress and the administration would do well to recognize that the cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and superior recruiting ability of reserve component forces (whether they be Army Guard, Army Reserve, Air Guard, Air Force Reserve, Marine Corps Reserve, or Naval Reserve) will play an even larger roll in our national defense in the coming years. The devastating budget impact of the skyrocketing cost of Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, and the service on the national debt will shrink the discretionary spending capability of the federal government to the point that the US will no longer be able to maintain the current level of full-time forces to defend the nation and still invest in new weapon systems. When that time comes, that which has been the US historical norm for two-thirds of our nation’s history – the citizen warrior – will again become the rule.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

GAO Sustains Boeing Protest: Just one more Stop on a Long Road

The Air Force continues to get knocked around like a ping pong ball over the award of its tanker replacement contract to Northrop Grumman / European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (NG/EADS). The GAO has sustained the Boeing Company’s protest and has given the Air Force 60 days to respond to the GAO’s recommendations. The GAO’s sustainment of Boeings protest should not be seen as a “reversal” of the tanker deal as the LA Times Headline reported on-line just a few minutes ago. It is, however, a recommendation by the GAO that the Air Force reopen discussions with Boeing and NG/EADS to obtain and evaluate revised proposals and make a new decision concerning the contract award. This should not be confused with the GAO telling the Air Force to award the contract to Boeing. Instead, it is the GAO telling the Air Force to go back and make a fresh decision. Only this time, the GAO wants the Air Force, among other things, to look much closer at the evaluation criteria identified in the solicitation, engage in equal discussions with both Boeing and NG/EADS, determine which competitor best can plan and support the Air Force to achieve initial organic depot-level maintenance within two years of delivery, consider military construction costs, and precisely estimate non-recurring engineering costs.

The GAO decision will add to the momentum generated by defense appropriators on the House Appropriations Committee for Defense (HAC-D) and by Senators Murray and Cantwell of Washington. While supporters of both NG/EADS and Boeing will voice their concern and support respectively, it is unlikely that either side will take action in committee or on the floor until the Air Force has responded in 60 days. It will be at that point we will all see just how long the road ahead will be.

Congress will have to find a way to stop its five year feud over securing new Air Force tankers if the US is ever going to replace its aging fleet of refuelers. After all, Congress has the power of the purse. But unless both sides are satisfied with the final Air Force decision, it is hard to see funding of a tanker replacement contract ever making it out of Congress. That would not bode well for NG/EADS or Boeing. After all, a contract let by the Air Force is nothing more than a pile of paper unless it is given life blood by appropriated federal funds.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Forget the GAO, House Defense Appropriators will Determine the Fate of the Air Force Tanker Contract

NSR Memo #101

All eyes are on the Government Accounting Office (GAO) as it prepares to make a recommendation on whether the $40 billion contract to build 179 air refueling tankers for the Air Force was properly awarded to Northrop Grumman / European Aeronautic, Defence, & Space Company (NG/EADS). But the GAO recommendation is just a prelude to the battle that is likely to erupt between House defense appropriators and supporters of the NG/EADS contract. Representative Jack Murtha, a Democrat from Pennsylvania and Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee on Defense (HAC-D), has pledged never to include funding for an air refueling tanker made by NG/EADS in any appropriations bill drafted by his committee. This pledge, fueled by Murtha’s distain of Senator John McCain’s derailing of tanker deal that Mr. Murtha approved four years ago will create a near certainty that the NG/EADS contract will never see a dollar of Congressional funding beyond FY08.

In March 2008, Boeing filed a protest with the GAO claiming that the Air Force had changed contract specifications during the competition for the contract award and claiming that illegal subsidies from European governments had given NG/EADS an unfair advantage. The recommendation concerning Boeing’s protest of the contract award will be delivered on or before the 19th of June.

Jack Murtha Strikes Back

Representative Murtha has been aggressively pushing for an Air Force tanker replacement contract since before 2002 when the HAC-D and the Senate Appropriations Committee on Defense (SAC-D) inserted language that paved the way for the proposed lease of Boeing tankers in the DOD Appropriations Act.[1] Though the language became law, and had the approval of three of the four defense committees in Congress (the SAC-D, HAC-D, and the House Armed Services Committee), the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), buried all chances of a lease in 2004 at the urging of Senator John McCain.

McCain had reasons to question the previous tanker deal: the corruption trial of Air Force acquisition official Darlene Druyun, his belief that the KC-135 was not old enough to replace, and his belief that the lease arrangement would cost more than buying the jets outright.

Mr. Murtha disagrees. He claims that “… [McCain’s] stopping [of] what the Air Force had already approved ... is costing billions of dollars” more than it would have if the first tanker deal had gone down the way he intended. [2] Murtha, while he believes that officials inside Boeing and the Air Force who engaged in corrupt activity should have been punished, does not believe the Air Force should have been punished by delaying recapitalization of its aging tanker fleet. Nor does he believe that the American people should have been punished by kicking the “procurement can” further down the road at more expense to the taxpayer.

Like Senator McCain four years ago, Mr. Murtha stands poised to block this Air Force tanker replacement contract. Mr. Murtha has made it clear that he does not plan to include funding for an air refueling tanker made by NG/EADS in any appropriations bill drafted by his committee. At a HAC-D hearing which he chaired on March 5th, he was very clear about his opposition to an NG/EADS contract when he told Air Force officials that they would be powerless to do anything about funding a tanker contract unless his committee provided the appropriation.[3] The basis for Murtha’s statement is found in Article I, Section 9, Clause 7 of the U.S. Constitution which says that “no money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by law.” This means that not a penny "...can be paid out of the Treasury unless it has been appropriated by an act of Congress.”[4] As long ago as 1850, the Supreme Court ruled that “however much money may be in the Treasury at any one time, not a dollar of it can be used in the payment of anything not… previously sanctioned [by a congressional appropriation].” [5]

Mr. Murtha not only has the power and committee jurisdiction to write a defense appropriations bill that would withhold funding for a NG/EADS contract, he could also go a step further. He could put specific language in the bill that forbids the use of any appropriated funds for the purpose of procuring Air Force refueling tankers from NG/EADS. Were such a bill to become law, NG/EADS would be completely cut off from funding for its tanker program. In United States v. Will and United States v. Dickerson the U.S. Supreme Court confirmed Congress’ right to prohibit the use of funds for a particular purpose in its yearly appropriations bills.[6] Therefore, as Chairman of the HAC-D, Jack Murtha could conceivably block NG/EADS tanker funding, one year at a time, for years to come.

There are Democrats, There are Republicans, and then there are Appropriators

The HAC-D does not engage in partisan infighting like many House committees. Though the solidarity of the appropriators may have eroded slightly since my days as a Defense Assistant to a former Chairman of the HAC-D, members of the committee, under Mr. Murtha, still tend to act in accord with their fellow appropriators and not along party lines when money matters are being considered in Congress. One need look no further than Full Appropriations Committee Chairman Jerry Lewis’ battle with the House Budget Committee in 2006 over spending caps in the FY07 House Budget Resolution to see how appropriators will break with party leadership (even a Speaker as popular at Denny Hastert) to follow their chairman when appropriations committee turf is threatened.[7]

Representatives Norm Dicks of Washington (Democrat) and Todd Tiahrt of Kansas (Republican) both sit on the HAC-D with Murtha. They both have Boeing manufacturing plants in their districts. Their opposition to the NG/EADS contract, along with Murtha’s strong hand on the rudder of the committee, will create a near certainty that the NG/EADS contract, even if approved by the GAO and released from the current freeze by the Air Force, will never see a dollar of Congressional funding beyond in FY08.

Without House support, any bill that goes to the President will not include funds for NG/EADS tanker procurement. Only Senate Defense Appropriations Bill Conference Committee members (if they support NG/EADS, which is not a foregone conclusion – just ask Senator Patty Murray of Washington) would be able to save NG/EADS by convincing the House to support the contract when the two chambers get together to reconcile the differences in their bills. Since the House conferees are typically made up of Mr. Murtha and his committee, a change in the House position at conference is unlikely.

Can Murtha turn Conflict into Compromise?

The Air Force has taken a real beating over the replacement of its old air refueling tankers. When the Air Force awarded a tanker contract to Boeing a few years ago, the SASC scuttled the plan. But now, as a result of this year's Air Force contract award, the Congressional outcry, especially from the HAC-D, will likely scuttle the NG/EADS contract.

All the while, the Air Force need for more tankers grows more desperate. Those being flown today are, on average, over 47 years old. Members of Congress, on both sides of the issue, know that it is essential that new tankers begin to roll off production lines soon. Otherwise, Air Force pilots will be flying 70 year-old tankers before the last of the KC-135s can be replaced years down the road.

All the talk about the GAO and potential court cases is pointless unless the parties involved can find a way to satisfy the Chairman of the HAC-D. In the end, Mr. Murtha may be the only one with the clout, jurisdiction, and resolve to find a way to get a tanker built. The likely result – after both sides see that each has the capability of scuttling the other’s contract – will be a compromise arrangement where no one is happy, but both sides get a piece of a “partnered” Air Force tanker procurement contract. Let's just hope everyone comes to that realization in time enough to build some new tankers in our lifetimes.


[1] Section 8159 (MULTI-YEAR AIRCRAFT LEASE PILOT PROGRAM) of the FY2002 DOD Appropriations Act (P.L. 107-117 of January 10, 2002)
[2] From the 5 March 2008 House Appropriations Committee on Defense open hearing on the Air Force contract award for the tanker replacement program with Ms. Sue Payton, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition and LTG John “Jack” Hudson, ASC Commander and Program Executive Officer.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Cincinnati Soap Co. v. United States, 301 U.S. 308, 321 (1937).
[5] Reeside v. Walker, 52 U.S. (11How.) 272, 291 (1850).
[6] See, e.g., United States v. Will, 449 U.S. 200, 222 (1980); United States v. Dickerson, 310 U.S. 554 (1940). For a recent example of this, see Atlantic Fish Spotters Ass’n v. Evans, 321 F.3d 220, 225, 229 (1st Cir. 2003).
[7] See “House Fails to Agree on Budget; Boehner Retreats,” OMB Watch, http://www.ombwatch.org/article/articleview/3386/1/86?TopicID=1. “What ultimately derailed the negotiations was not a breakdown between moderates and conservatives (although that rift was far from repaired), but Boehner's move to allow a specific proposal requiring that the Budget Committee approve all non-defense emergency spending over $4.3 billion. This proposal angered Appropriations Chairman Jerry Lewis (R-CA), who then publicly stated his opposition to the budget. Lewis was subsequently able to use his sway in the committee to get other Republicans to defect, leaving the party far short of the number of votes it would need in a caucus already divided between two factions--moderates who wanted more discretionary spending and conservatives who wanted less.”

Monday, June 16, 2008

Brokaw's Meet the Press Tribute was Moving

The Tribute to Tim Russert on Meet the Press yesterday was moving. From the moment the camera showed Tim's empty chair, I was emotional. It hit hard. The Chair that he had filled for 17 years sat empty. The set was dark. Tom Brokaw's warm but emotionally tinged voice opened the broadcast...along with that empty chair.

After watching Tim's broadcast every Sunday I felt like I had lost a best friend. That empty chair only solidified the feeling that there was and would be a void in my life...in millions of lives. Seeing panelists James Carville and Mary Matalin holding hands and weeping together only made the void seem larger. Brokaw and his guests helped me understand exactly why I felt I would miss Russert so much. They painted a picture of a tough interviewer who loved politics and politicians. They also painted a picture of a man who thoroughly loved his father, son, and wife, who loved his Buffalo sports teams, and loved his friends (and their sports teams).

Brokaw tried bravely to set the tone early by saying "Tim has a very large wooden sign in his office and it's going to be our mantra for this morning. It says 'Thou Shall Not Whine.' And if I can add, I think, anything to that, 'Thou shall not weep or cry this morning." Brokaw lived up to this mantra for most of the show, but even he could not suppress his emotion - becoming visibly shaken for a moment during which Mike Barnicle (the only panelist able to hold it completely together) kindly spoke up - diverting the camera's attention. Betsy Fischer (the show's executive producer), Doris Kearns Goodwin, Gwen Ifill, and , by satellite, Maria Shriver also joined Mr. Brokaw in remembrance of Russert.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

U.S. Air Force Guard and Reserve are Force Multipliers that Deserve Support

I co-authored the following article with Mackenzie Eaglen on the Heritage Foundation website on 2 June 2008

By Mackenzie Eaglen and Samuel C. Mahaney

Heritage Foundation WebMemo #1942

While Congress continues debate on the fiscal year (FY) 2009 defense bills, the services continue their work on the Pentagon's 2010 budget proposal in consultation with the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). As is typical during the annual process, the services were told to cut their budgets and programs from their original estimations. The U.S. Air Force, however, is considering dramatic and disproportionate cuts of the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve budgets. The National Guard and Reserves remain the two most cost-effective organizations in the U.S. armed forces and should be bolstered, not reduced. Senior uniformed and civilian defense leaders must make a compelling case to OMB officials to avoid draconian cuts to the Air Force reserve components in FY 2010. Congress should carefully monitor the budget deliberations to ensure all senior military and civilian defense leaders understand the true value and cost efficiencies—both quantitative and qualitative—that the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve provide America.

National Guard and Reserves are Indispensable to the Nation

According to the Commission on the National Guard and Reserves, the shares of the total U.S. Air Force annual budget for the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve are 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Yet officials are reportedly privately directing the Air National Guard, for example, to cut its meager budget by one-eighth in FY 2010. This type of budget cut would be disastrous for Air Force Guard and Reserve forces. Specifically, a cut of this magnitude would emaciate the Air National Guard and its domestic homeland defense responsibilities, such as the Air Sovereignty Alert mission.

With budget pressures growing because of military personnel and fuel costs, Pentagon planners may be resorting to drastic force structure changes within the Air Reserve Component (ARC). Short-sighted justifications demonstrate the budgetary strain on the Navy and Air Force in particular. Terms like "acceptable levels of risk" and "tiered readiness" are used all too often to mask the siphoning of ARC accounts during internal budget deliberations. Unfortunately, attempts to streamline the defense budget at the expense of the Air Reserve Component would only cause long-term damage to the military.

The FY 2008 federal defense appropriation helpfully demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of the Air Force Guard and Reserves. For example, the average Air Force Reservist requires an annual military personnel appropriation for pay and benefits of only $20,204, and the average Air National Guard member requires only $24,530.[1] These figures are significantly less than the average $73,630 in pay and benefits appropriated for each active duty Air Force member in FY 2008.[2] When Air Force personnel appropriations are compared, it is striking to note that Air Reserve Component members use about 14 percent of appropriated personnel funds but perform over half of all Air Force missions.[3]

Efficiencies found in Air Reserve Component personnel accounts are also present in ARC Operations and Maintenance (O&M) accounts. O&M costs include equipment operating costs (fuel, supplies, and repair parts), recruiting and training, and other unit support activities. The total Air Force FY 2008 O&M appropriation is $40.5 billion. Of that amount, the Air National Guard will use just 14 percent and the Air Force Reserve will consume just 7 percent in FY 2008.[4] In return for this 21 percent share, the Air Force Guard and Reserves will perform 54 percent of the Air Force mission. In doing so, the Air Force Reserve will fly 100 percent of all Air Force aerial spray and weather reconnaissance (hurricane hunters) missions. The Reserves will also fly 60 percent of all aeromedical evacuation missions and 46 percent of all strategic airlift missions.[5] Likewise, the Air National Guard will fly 41 percent of all Air Force air refueling tankers, 33 percent of Air Force command and control aircraft, 31 percent of Air Force fighters, and 30 percent of all Air Force airlift aircraft.[6] These forces provide tremendous capability at a relative bargain.

Value of the Reserve Component Far Exceeds its Modest Cost

Guard and Reserve forces' value cannot be measured in fiscal terms alone. These essential airmen and women relieve the strain that active duty forces endure from their high operating tempo at home and abroad. The Air National Guard is a unique dual-purpose force that conducts both federal and state missions, from major combat operations overseas to domestic emergency response. Guard and Reserve forces also provide countless other benefits to the nation, including "close ties to their communities, the forward deployment of military first responders throughout the country, civilian-acquired skills that are not readily attainable or maintainable in a full-time military force, the preservation of costly training and experience possessed by servicemembers who are leaving the active component, and the maintenance of a large pool of strategic military capabilities."[7]

With this kind of quantitative and qualitative return on investment, the last thing Pentagon leaders need to do is begin a subtle dismantling of its two most cost-effective major commands. While the ground components of the Guard and Reserve are just now converting from a strategic reserve to a routinely used operational reserve, the Air Force employed an operational reserve model 17 years ago. The Air Reserve Component has been a flexible operational reserve engaged in continuous combat operations since January 1991.

Portions of the Air Reserve Component performed as a flexible operational reserve as early as 1968, when the first Air Force Reserve units began to share KC-135 tanker aircraft and missions with active duty units. During all these years, the Air Reserve Component has surged when needed—primarily through volunteerism—but has not burdened the defense budget when not needed. Over many decades, Air Force Guard and Reserve members have met the same standards and accomplished the same training requirements as their active duty brothers and sisters. They have volunteered to fly and deploy at rates that have allowed them to perform a disproportionately large percentage of the Air Force mission compared to what they draw from the U.S. Treasury.

Beyond its cost-effectiveness and flexibility, the Air Reserve Component performs another vital role. At a time when many fear the military may be becoming increasingly isolated from society, the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserves are playing a key role in interacting with their communities. Air Reserve Component members spend 80 percent of their time working and serving in communities across America and only 20 percent fighting and training as part of the United States military. Not only do Air Force Guard and Reserve personnel bring civilian culture to the military, they have the longevity and rank to use their cultural influence to ensure that the American military reflects the norms, values, traditions, and expectations of civil society.

Conclusion

While it is an easy quick fix to raid the Air Reserve Component accounts—given that they are the only place left to harvest monies in the quantities needed to put Band-Aids on the overall defense budget—this is not a long-term solution. Nor can the nation quickly replenish these highly skilled ranks once they are depleted.

Initiatives like those put forth by the Commission on the National Guard and Reserve in their January 2008 report, are seemingly being interpreted by the Administration (through its FY 2010 budget actions) as a suggestion that the Guard and Reserve should be reduced in size and mission and eventually absorbed into the active duty force. Nothing could be more dangerous for America.

As the defense budget comes under increasing pressure in the years to come, reducing the funding and missions of the Pentagon's most cost-effective organizations should be the last resort. Instead, defense leaders should begin leveraging the cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and strong community relations of the Air Reserve Component by increasing its size and mission. Recognition of the new operational role of the Reserve Component should lead to a more distinct mission set, not a Guard and Reserve that has been repackaged as "active duty lite."

Mackenzie M. Eaglen is Senior Policy Analyst for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation, and Colonel Samuel C. Mahaney is a U.S. Air Force Reserve pilot, attorney, and National Security Fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

[1] U.S. House of Representatives, "Making Appropriations for the Department of Defense for the Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 2008, and for Other Purposes; Conference Report to Accompany H.R. 3222," Report 110-434, November 6, 2007, pp. 56–57. Note: Average annual military personnel appropriation was computed by dividing total Air Force Reserve (AFR) Military Personnel appropriation ($1,363,779,000) by AFR authorized endstrength (67,500) and by dividing total Air National Guard (ANG) Military Personnel appropriation ($2,617,319,000) by ANG authorized endstrength (106,700).

[2] Ibid. Note: Average annual military personnel appropriation was computed by dividing total Air Force active duty Military Personnel appropriation ($24,194,914,000) by Air Force active duty authorized endstrength (73,630).

[3] Ibid. Note: According to the office of the Secretary of the Air Force, Reserve Policy and Integration (SAF/REI), the Air Force Reserve flies 20 percent of all Air Force missions. According to the National Guard Bureau (NGB/CFX), the Air National Guard flies 34 percent of all Air Force missions.

[4] Ibid., pp. 110, 133, 139.

[5] U.S. Air Force Reserve Snapshot, HQAF/RES, April–May, 2008, p. 1, at http://www.afrc.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-060712-018.pdf (June 2, 2008).

[6] Air National Guard Snapshot, NGB/CFX, January–March, 2008, p. 1, at http://www.ang.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-080204-033.pdf (June 2, 2008).

[7] Commission on the National Guard and Reserves, "Final Report to Congress and the Secretary of Defense," January 31, 2008, p. 68, at www.cngr.gov/Final%20Report/CNGR%20Final%20Report.pdf (June 2, 2008).


The Air Force Times filed the following report in response to the webmemo.

Report: Reserves ordered to slash budgets

By Erik Holmes - Staff writerPosted : Wednesday Jun 4, 2008 12:46:09 EDT

The Air Force is considering “dramatic and disproportionate cuts” to the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve budgets for fiscal 2010, according to a new report from a Washington think tank.

Defense analysts Mackenzie Eaglen and Samuel Mahaney of the Heritage Foundation write in a report released Monday that the Air Force, facing budgetary pressures from the White House and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, is directing the Air National Guard to cuts its budget by one-eighth, or 12.5 percent, in 2010. The report does not specify the cuts faced by the Reserves.

“This type of budget cut would be disastrous for Air Force Guard and Reserve forces,” Eaglen and Mahaney write. “Specifically, a cut of this magnitude would emaciate the Air National Guard and its domestic homeland defense responsibilities, such as the air sovereignty alert mission.”
The defense analysts argue that the Guard and Reserves offer the Air Force the most bang for the buck and “should be bolstered, not reduced.”

They point out that the Guard and Reserve in 2008 will account for just 14 percent of the Air Force’s appropriated personnel expenditures and 21 percent of operations and maintenance expenditures, but will perform 54 percent of the missions.

The Guard and Reserve play critical roles in homeland security and overseas combat operations, both of which could be harmed if their budgets are cut significantly, the report says.

Officials from the Guard and Reserve told Air Force Times that they had heard nothing so far about large budget cuts. Officials at Air Force Headquarters reported that “nothing is solidified yet” in the 2010 budget, according to an e-mail from Air Force spokeswoman Lt. Col. Karen Platt.